Newsletter 54

Number 54

SAFE

Secure America's Future Economy

Summer 2009

We hope so – this is one of the worst ideas to come down the pike. Even if the climate alarmists were right, the effect on global warming would be a small fraction of one degree F. Of course, we hold that global warming is not harmful, and that carbon dioxide is no more than a minor factor.

The big concern about cap & trade (“Cap & Tax”) is the harmful effect on the economy. A major electricity supplier estimates it would increase the cost of electricity by 30-50%. In a July 7^th hearing of the Senate Environment Committee, witness Haley Barbour said NUCOR STEEL will move plants overseas if Cap & Trade passes. This could result in a higher proportion of coal plants causing an unintended effect of greater worldwide total carbon dioxide emissions due to a Cap & trade law.

On top of the other disadvantages, a Cap & Trade law is likely to cause corruption.

Senator Inhofe of Oklahoma, a major factor at the hearing, said the bill will be reported out of the committee, but will not pass the Senate. He also said it would fail in the Senate, at the June 2^nd Washington, D.C. meeting of global warming skeptics.

Let’s hope Inhofe is right. However, even if it doesn’t pass now, it may be re-introduced in another form. It won’t hurt to pass the word about the negative effects of Cap & Trade. Use this article or the entire newsletter if you like. Use the omnipresent photocopying facilities if you need to.

WEBSITE: WORK IN PROGRESS

President Bill Whipple and website Guru Charles Kaszytski continue upgrading our Web site (www.s-a-f-e.org). In addition to reading the weekly blog, be sure to revisit the other pages. There is new content in many areas, notably the Home page, the redesigned Healthcare and Energy pages, and the Legislative Contacts page (accessible from the home page).

The latest feature (launched 7/6/09) is a “Question of the Week” page where readers can weigh in with their opinions and see what other readers have to say. Check the page out (link appears at the end of the current blog entry) and post a comment. It’s easy, fun, and other readers will appreciate your input.

As always, if you would like to offer feedback on the website, whether pro or con, please send it to Bill (ww3@atlanticbb,net)

The Sky is Falling Because:

It’s getting cold,

No, It’s getting hot,

No, It’s getting cold.

Chicken Little is Confused

Every two years, the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) hosts a conference in the Washington, D.C. area. SAFE directors Steve McClain and Bill Whipple attended in 2007, which resulted in the launching of the SAFE blog, and repeated this year (June 11-13).

Attendance at the 2009 conference provided an update on how other fiscal visionaries view the current situation in Washington, and what ideas they have for responding. Unsurprisingly, there was near unanimity on the problems, but much less agreement on the solution(s).

A discussion of Steve and Bill’s impressions may be found in the blog: Stopping the big government express, what’s the plan? 6/29/09. Here’s the bottom line:

We are not inclined to count on “one-shot” solutions, such as SAFE Commission or balanced budget amendment, although we would be willing to support them. The crux of solving the fiscal problem is applying sustained pressure in the right direction.

Perhaps “smaller, more focused, less costly government” is not in the cards right now, but it is also hard to imagine the fiscal problem being solved while the government continues to expand its influence at the expense of the private sector.

There were also excellent breakout sessions on various topics, from electronic communication tools (including Facebook, Twitter, etc.) to crafting an effective message (the technology changes, but not the basic job). Some tips from the latter session follow:

Because of the Cap & Trade bill in congress, Heartland Institute arranged a one-day meeting of global warming skeptics for June 2nd in Washington, D.C. I took advantage of this opportunity to attend. By taking an early train, I arrived in time for the breakfast meeting, with copies of the handout I use with my global warming talk.

My main goal for the meeting was to recruit people to give talks, and I succeeded. Three attendees agreed to give talks. I call this a success, but with the usual hindsight I see how I could have done more.

My highlight was Senator Inhofe’s talk and his statement that Cap & Trade will not pass the Senate. He has repeated that prediction, recently. Here are some other highlights.

Evidence abounds that carbon dioxide has very little effect on warming and cooling. So, what is the main cause? “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” has been suggested. Sea surface temperature is high in one large area of the Pacific for several years, then in another large area for several years. I was pleased that Fred Singer stated a preference for variation in sun radiance as the main cause, so I can continue to focus on the sun.

Anthony Watts reported on the unreliability of surface temperature measurements which are biased to show a false temperature increase. We can rely on satellite measurements which are showing no temperature increase.

By 2050, population increase will cause a doubling of energy demand. If the world’s standard of living reached the U.S. standard, energy demand would be 8 times the present level.

A new organization has been formed – the “Non-Governmental Panel on climate change (NGPCC)” to combat the “Intergovernmental Panel on climate change” (IPCC). The IPCC is behind the push to decrease carbon dioxide emission. The NGPCC issued a huge book containing the important climate studies that refute the IPCC fight against carbon dioxide.

In the 1980’s, electric power reserves were 15-20%. According to a recent Congressional Quarterly, the present reserve is about 10% and dropping fast. In 2007, the North American Electric Reliability Council warned that by 2015, we’d be 8% short of electric generating capacity. New capacity takes time to be planned, approved and installed, and it will soon be too late if it is not already too late to prevent electric blackouts.

Members of Congress need to receive pressure from SAFE members and others to address this problem now. Fast track approvals of new coal-powered and natural gas powered plants are needed ASAP.

Windmills and solar panels cannot do the job. In addition to being too expensive, they need back-up power when the weather is cloudy or the wind is too slow or too fast.

A major contributing factor to the upcoming electricity shortage is the global warming hoo-ha. We know better, and it appears that most Americans know better. However, in an unnecessary and futile effort to delay global warming by limiting carbon dioxide, the federal government and some state governments have prevented construction of new power plants.

What about nuclear power which does not emit carbon dioxide? A good idea, and it is coming. However, there are still many Americans who oppose nuclear power because of concern about storage of spent fuel. We know this concern is not realistic, and that nuclear power is less hazardous than other power sources. We discussed this in newsletter #49.

We need to support nuclear power as the best currently known solution to future energy needs. It could conceivably be the best solution to the near term need for additional energy to prevent electric blackouts.

Relying on windmills and solar panels, and allowing delays in construction of coal-powered, natural gas-powered, and nuclear-powered electrical plants carries a huge risk of electric blackouts. That risk will be decreased by putting construction of one or more of these three power sources on a fast track.

So, we know what to do to help prevent electric blackouts. Contacting members of Congress, and publicizing the risks will help.

If you want to be prepared in case Congressional inaction causes blackouts now might be a good time to get a generator, or, for pennies, you can put plastic bottles with salt water in your freezer to delay warm-up if electricity is off for a while for any reason.

LOCAL TEA PARTIES

We attended July 2^nd “tea parties” in each of Delaware’s three counties. Directors Barry Dorsch (Sussex County) and Jerry Martin (New Castle County) and President Bill Whipple (Kent County) were present. The fervor seems less than in the April 15^th tea parties, but continues to exist. We all need to support this push against overspending and overcontrol by the federal government. The backbones of members of Congress are badly in need of stiffening.

IN DEFENSE OF DOING NOTHING

(From Cato’s letter, Spring 2009, by Jeffrey Miron. Here is his last paragraph):

To sum up, the crisis was at its most fundamental level the result of government policies, not market failures. The government policies adopted have been misdirected, at best. The lesson for policymakers is therefore clear; it is better to do nothing than to make things worse. In economics, as in medicine, the dictum is “first, do no harm”.

CAP & TRADE IN TROUBLE	ELECTRIC BLACKOUTS COMING
WEB SITE: WORK IN PROGRESS	LOCAL TEA PARTIES
NAT’L TAXPAYERS CONFERENCE	IN DEFENSE OF DOING NOTHING
SKEPTICS IN D.C.	SAFE OFFICERS